LEVEL OF SERVICE

ForeSite is provided in three levels of service depending on your requirements:

ForeSite | Basic

This level of forecast includes :

• Forecast given for complete wind farm site
• Basic downscaling model without topographic and wakes correction
• Typical accuracy NMAE*: 17%
• Typical learning time*: 20 days

(NMAE - Normalised Mean Absolute Error. This applies to power and corresponds to the average error divided by the nominal power.)

ForeSite | Standard

This level of forecast includes :

• Forecast given for complete wind farm site
• Advanced downscaling model where site topography and roughness is modelled using VENTOS® micro-scale CFD model to further improve accuracy and reduce learning time
• Typical NMAE*: 14%
• Typical learning time*: 10 days

ForeSite | Advanced

This level of forecast includes :

• Forecast given for complete wind farm site, and individual turbines (if required)
• Anticipated turbine availability is integrated into forecast**
• Historical availability-corrected data is used to refine accuracy**
• Advanced downscaling model whereby site topography, roughness is modelled using VENTOS micro-scale CFD model to further improve accuracy and reduce learning time
• Tree cover (where relevant) is included in CFD model
• Turbines wakes are modelled
• Typical NMAE* < 12%
• Typical learning time*: 10 days
• Monthly report is provided giving statistics on forecast accuracy
• Guaranteed accuracy: daily energy forecasts with an NMAE > 17% are not invoiced**

ForeSite | Special Projects

Natural Power and meteoblue are able to offer a range of forecasting services on any projects outside of the above remit. Please do get in touch for more information.

*Typical NMAE and learning times are based on tests carried out on several operational wind farms and on tall masts. The actual forecast accuracy achieved on a particular site depends on many factors and therefore these numbers are given as an indication only and no warranty is given as to whether these can be achieved.

** Requires Natural Power Melogale asset management service